Shaping the Future of Global Food Systems

horizon2023

A report by the World Economic Forum’s System Initiative on Shaping the Future of Food Security and Agriculture Prepared in collaboration with Deloitte Consulting LLP

publication2017

scopglobal

main sectorsfood

Scenarios

Survival of the Richest

Resource-intensive consumption and low market connectivity lead to a divided world with sluggish economic growth. Wealthy populations access nutritious food, while poor regions face hunger. By 2030, inequality and climate change worsen. Note: The name "PlanetB" was requested but does not appear in this document.

Unchecked Consumption

High market connectivity and resource-intensive consumption drive rapid GDP growth but deplete natural resources. By 2030, obesity rises, and ecosystems collapse due to unsustainable practices. Note: The name "Universal Sustainability" was requested but does not appear in this document.

Open-source Sustainability

Resource-efficient consumption and high market connectivity foster transparency and innovation. By 2030, nutritious diets are more accessible, but some farmers are left behind. Note: The name "Trapped in Debris" was requested but does not appear in this document.

Local Is the New Global

Resource-efficient consumption and low market connectivity promote local food systems. By 2030, resource-rich regions thrive, but import-dependent areas face hunger hotspots. Note: The name "Saving Earth" was requested but does not appear in this document.

Critical Uncertainties

resource-intensive

Demand Shift

resource-efficient

Demand Shift

Will consumption be resource-intensive (high environmental and health costs) or resource-efficient (sustainable and healthy diets)? Includes consumer preferences for nutritious vs. unhealthy foods and sustainable vs. unsustainable production.

disconnected

Market Connectivity

highly connected

Market Connectivity

Will markets be highly connected (open trade, resilient commodity markets) or disconnected (protectionist policies, fragmented trade)? Encompasses trade openness, trust in markets, and inclusivity of technological innovations.

increased volatility

Climate Change

resource degradation threatening

Climate Change

Impacts all scenarios, with increased volatility and resource degradation threatening food production. Depends on global cooperation for mitigation and adaptation.