A life-centred design approach to innovation: Space Vulture, a conceptual circular system to create value from space debris

horizon2070

The report proposes Space Vulture, a conceptual closed-loop system to address space debris by 2070, transforming waste into valuable materials for manufacturing objects that enhance well-being. Using a life-centred design approach, it tackles the systemic issue of space debris, emphasizing incentives and sustainability over linear technological fixes.

publicationTir-21

main sectorsSpace Sustainability

A life-centred design approach to innovation: Space Vulture, a conceptual circular system to create value from space debris

horizon2070

publicationTir-21

main sectorsSpace Sustainability

Scenarios

Saving Earth

By 2070, limited space entrepreneurship reduces new satellite launches, but historical debris fuels high Kessler Syndrome risks. Global efforts focus on innovative removal technologies like Space Vulture, recycling debris into valuable materials. Strong incentives and policies drive collective action, prioritizing Earth's protection and sustainable space use.

Trapped in Debris

In 2070, rampant space entrepreneurship has led to over 50,000 satellites, exacerbating debris accumulation. Frequent collisions heighten Kessler Syndrome risks, threatening space activities. Despite global awareness, space actors prioritize avoidance over cleanup, lacking incentives. This scenario underscores the need for systemic solutions to incentivize collective action for space sustainability.

Universal Sustainability

By 2070, high space entrepreneurship drives satellite launches, but advanced mitigation keeps Kessler Syndrome risks low. Global policies and recycling technologies promote universal sustainability, incentivizing debris removal through economic value creation. Space Vulture-like systems recycle debris into desirable products, fostering a sustainable space ecosystem and collective action.

PlanetB

In 2070, space entrepreneurship is limited, and Kessler Syndrome risks are low due to effective debris mitigation technologies. Sustainable practices dominate, with on-orbit recycling and regulatory frameworks ensuring space sustainability. Global collaboration fosters innovative debris management, transforming waste into valuable resources, aligning with a circular economy to maintain a thriving space environment.

Critical Uncertainties

High likelihood

Kessler Syndrome

Low likelihood

Kessler Syndrome

High likelihood of Kessler Syndrome with frequent debris collisions rendering orbits unusable. Low likelihood of Kessler Syndrome with manageable debris levels and effective mitigation.

High space

Space Entrepreneurship

Low space

Space Entrepreneurship

High space entrepreneurship with booming private sector involvement and satellite launches. Low space entrepreneurship with limited private sector growth and fewer satellite deployments.